Modeling the Impact of Overstory Density on Reproduction Establishment in the Missouri Ozarks

by

Lance A. Vickers, David R. Larsen, John M. Kabrick, Daniel C. Dey, Benjamin O. Knapp

PhD Graduate (LAV), University of Missouri, 203 Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211; Professor (DRL), University of Missouri, 203 Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211; Research Forester (JMK), USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211; Research Forester and Project Leader (DCD), USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211; Assistant Professor (BOK), University of Missouri, 203 Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211

Abstract – Predicting the effects of silvicultural choices on tree regeneration has traditionally been difficult with the tools currently available to foresters. To improve this, we have developed a collection of empirical establishment models based on hypotheses of stand dynamics for several species found in the Missouri Ozarks. The empirical models estimate the post-harvest density of new reproduction (stems not originating from large advance reproduction or stump-sprouts) as a function of overstory density, pre-harvest reproduction presence, and post-harvest seed source presence. Distribution parameters can be derived from the establishment models to allow stochastic simulation of reproduction establishment following a variety of harvest-based silvicultural manipulations.